EMPIRE: A robust empirical reconstruction of solar irradiance variability

We present a new empirical model of total and spectral solar irradiance (TSI and SSI) variability entitled EMPirical Irradiance REconstruction (EMPIRE). As with existing empirical models, TSI and SSI variability is given by the linear combination of solar activity indices. In empirical models, UV SSI variability is usually determined by fitting the rotational variability in activity indices to that in measurements. Such models have to date relied on ordinary least squares regression, which ignores the uncertainty in the activity indices. In an advance from earlier efforts, the uncertainty in the activity indices is accounted for in EMPIRE by the application of an error-in-variables regression scheme, making the resultant UV SSI variability more robust. The result is consistent with observations and unprecedentedly, with that from other modelling approaches, resolving the long-standing controversy between existing empirical models and other types of models. We demonstrate that earlier empirical models, by neglecting the uncertainty in activity indices, underestimate UV SSI variability. The reconstruction of TSI and visible and IR SSI from EMPIRE is also shown to be consistent with observations. The EMPIRE reconstruction is of utility to climate studies as a more robust alternative to earlier empirical reconstructions.Comment: J. Geophys. Res. (2017

Solar cycle variation in solar irradiance

The correlation between solar irradiance and the 11-year solar activity cycle is evident in the body of measurements made from space, which extend over the past four decades. Models relating variation in solar irradiance to photospheric magnetism have made significant progress in explaining most of the apparent trends in these observations. There are, however, persistent discrepancies between different measurements and models in terms of the absolute radiometry, secular variation and the spectral dependence of the solar cycle variability. We present an overview of solar irradiance measurements and models, and discuss the key challenges in reconciling the divergence between the two

Analysis and modeling of solar irradiance variations

A prominent manifestation of the solar dynamo is the 11-year activity cycle, evident in indicators of solar activity, including solar irradiance. Although a relationship between solar activity and the brightness of the Sun had long been suspected, it was only directly observed after regular satellite measurements became available with the launch of Nimbus-7 in 1978. The measurement of solar irradiance from space is accompanied by the development of models aimed at describing the apparent variability by the intensity excess/deficit effected by magnetic structures in the photosphere. The more sophisticated models, termed semi-empirical, rely on the intensity spectra of photospheric magnetic structures generated with radiative transfer codes from semi-empirical model atmospheres. An established example of such models is SATIRE-S (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era). One key limitation of current semi-empirical models is the fact that the radiant properties of network and faculae are not adequately represented due to the use of plane-parallel model atmospheres (as opposed to three-dimensional model atmospheres). This thesis is the compilation of four publications, detailing the results of investigations aimed at setting the groundwork necessary for the eventual introduction of three-dimensional atmospheres into SATIRE-S and a review of the current state of the measurement and modelling of solar irradiance. Also presented is an update of the SATIRE-S model. We generated a daily reconstruction of total and spectral solar irradiance, covering 1974 to the present, that is more reliable and, in most cases, extended than similar reconstructions from contemporary models.Comment: Doctoral thesis, ISBN 978-3-944072-07-

Solar Irradiance Variability is Caused by the Magnetic Activity on the Solar Surface

The variation in the radiative output of the Sun, described in terms of solar irradiance, is important to climatology. A common assumption is that solar irradiance variability is driven by its surface magnetism. Verifying this assumption has, however, been hampered by the fact that models of solar irradiance variability based on solar surface magnetism have to be calibrated to observed variability. Making use of realistic three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the solar atmosphere and state-of-the-art solar magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we present a model of total solar irradiance (TSI) that does not require any such calibration. In doing so, the modeled irradiance variability is entirely independent of the observational record. (The absolute level is calibrated to the TSI record from the Total Irradiance Monitor.) The model replicates 95% of the observed variability between April 2010 and July 2016, leaving little scope for alternative drivers of solar irradiance variability at least over the time scales examined (days to years).Comment: Supplementary Materials; https://journals.aps.org/prl/supplemental/10.1103/PhysRevLett.119.091102/supplementary_material_170801.pd

The nature of solar brightness variations

The solar brightness varies on timescales from minutes to decades. Determining the sources of such variations, often referred to as solar noise, is of importance for multiple reasons: a) it is the background that limits the detection of solar oscillations, b) variability in solar brightness is one of the drivers of the Earth's climate system, c) it is a prototype of stellar variability which is an important limiting factor for the detection of extra-solar planets. Here we show that recent progress in simulations and observations of the Sun makes it finally possible to pinpoint the source of the solar noise. We utilise high-cadence observations from the Solar Dynamic Observatory and the SATIRE model to calculate the magnetically-driven variations of solar brightness. The brightness variations caused by the constantly evolving cellular granulation pattern on the solar surface are computed with the MURAM code. We find that surface magnetic field and granulation can together precisely explain solar noise on timescales from minutes to decades, i.e. ranging over more than six orders of magnitude in the period. This accounts for all timescales that have so far been resolved or covered by irradiance measurements. We demonstrate that no other sources of variability are required to explain the data. Recent measurements of Sun-like stars by CoRoT and Kepler uncovered brightness variations similar to that of the Sun but with much wider variety of patterns. Our finding that solar brightness variations can be replicated in detail with just two well-known sources will greatly simplify future modelling of existing CoRoT and Kepler as well as anticipated TESS and PLATO data.Comment: This is the submitted version of the paper published in Nature Astronom

Reconstruction of spectral solar irradiance since 1700 from simulated magnetograms

We present a reconstruction of the spectral solar irradiance since 1700 using the SATIRE-T2 (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions for the Telescope era version 2) model. This model uses as input magnetograms simulated with a surface flux transport model fed with semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups. We used statistical relationships between the properties of sunspot group emergence, such as the latitude, area, and tilt angle, and the sunspot cycle strength and phase to produce semi-synthetic sunspot group records starting in the year 1700. The semisynthetic records are fed into a surface flux transport model to obtain daily simulated magnetograms that map the distribution of the magnetic flux in active regions (sunspots and faculae) and their decay products on the solar surface. The magnetic flux emerging in ephemeral regions is accounted for separately based on the concept of extended cycles whose length and amplitude are linked to those of the sunspot cycles through the sunspot number. The magnetic flux in each surface component (sunspots, faculae and network, and ephemeral regions) was used to compute the spectral and total solar irradiance between the years 1700 and 2009. This reconstruction is aimed at timescales of months or longer although the model returns daily values. We found that SATIRE-T2, besides reproducing other relevant observations such as the total magnetic flux, reconstructs the total solar irradiance (TSI) on timescales of months or longer in good agreement with the PMOD composite of observations, as well as with the reconstruction starting in 1878 based on the RGO-SOON data. The model predicts an increase in the TSI of 1.2[+0.2, -0.3] Wm-2 between 1700 and the present. The spectral irradiance reconstruction is in good agreement with the UARS/SUSIM measurements as well as the Lyman-alpha composite.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figure

UV solar irradiance in observations and the NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models

Total solar irradiance and UV spectral solar irradiance have been monitored since 1978 through a succession of space missions. This is accompanied by the development of models aimed at replicating solar irradiance by relating the variability to solar magnetic activity. The NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models provide the most comprehensive reconstructions of total and spectral solar irradiance over the period of satellite observation currently available. There is persistent controversy between the various measurements and models in terms of the wavelength dependence of the variation over the solar cycle, with repercussions on our understanding of the influence of UV solar irradiance variability on the stratosphere. We review the measurement and modelling of UV solar irradiance variability over the period of satellite observation. The SATIRE-S reconstruction is consistent with spectral solar irradiance observations where they are reliable. It is also supported by an independent, empirical reconstruction of UV spectral solar irradiance based on UARS/SUSIM measurements from an earlier study. The weaker solar cycle variability produced by NRLSSI between 300 and 400 nm is not evident in any available record. We show that although the method employed to construct NRLSSI is principally sound, reconstructed solar cycle variability is detrimentally affected by the uncertainty in the SSI observations it draws upon in the derivation. Based on our findings, we recommend, when choosing between the two models, the use of SATIRE-S for climate studies

Fibre-optic sensor technologies for humidity and moisture measurement

A review of the use of fibre-optic sensor technologies for humidity sensing is presented. The paper first provides a brief overview on the basic concept of what is meant by humidity and on conventional detection methods. This is followed by an extensive review on the various fibre-optic techniques reported for humidity sensing, covering both intrinsic and extrinsic sensor configurations